The military intervention of Russia alongside President Bashar al-Assad in Syria in September 2015 was a game changer in the conflict that erupted in March 2011. In addition to changing the predicament on the ground in favour of the Syrian regime, the Russian presence in Syria altered the nature of local peacemaking in areas recaptured from opposition forces. The destructive battle for Eastern Ghouta – largely won by the Syrian regime – prompted opposition forces to negotiate their exit from cities and villages around Damascus after five years of siege (April 2013-April 2018). Negotiations were led exclusively by Russian military and offered a simple choice to opposition groups and affiliated local populations: leave or die. And so began a process of forced displacement from areas recaptured by the Syrian regime – with the support of its Russian (and Iranian) ally – to the northwest of Syria. Similar deals were struck across Syria in 2017 until the summer of 2018, mainly in Homs and its countryside, Damascus and its countryside, Quneitra and Daraa. These deals coincided with the first rounds of Astana talks in early 2017 – a peace initiative aimed at intra-Syria negotiations – that granted Russia, Turkey and Iran the status of guarantor states with the task to implement UN Resolution 2254 that called for a ceasefire and political settlement in Syria.

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